Many Ways: One Goal

All credit and honor to National Popular Vote, the non-profit that for years has championed the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. By the end of this month 14 states and the District of Columbia, at least, will have passed and signed the bill. The total number of electors bound then will be 189, leaving 81 more to be committed to the same bill before it becomes effective.

As the finish line of 270 electors emerges from the fog of the future, I respectfully suggest to the advocates of the Compact that two ideas should be firmly embraced by them. First, for the good of the country and the long-term viability of the Compact it is critical to include voters from Republican-leaning states in the great advancement of one person, one vote as the means of choosing the president. Second, there is more than one way to slice an apple.

 With respect to the first, I hope the National Popular Vote folks will be much more open about the states in which they are advocating the Compact. They should post the names of contact people in every state. They should sponsor on-the-ground activists who enroll citizens in the great cause. They should endorse ballot measures as a technique for winning support. A good first step would be to find a legislature that puts the Compact on the ballot for the primary in 2020, so that both Republican and Democratic leaning voters can decide whether to support the Compact. Oregon is a good case in point. Why not take this step? Get the Oregon legislature to put the Compact on the ballot. Let the people pick the way the president is picked.

Second, State Senator Bill Ferguson of Maryland recently introduced a very thoughtful bill in the Maryland legislature. His idea was to maintain the Compact, passed in Maryland in 2007, but to supplement it by offering to pair Democratic-leaning Maryland's electors with the electors in a Republican-leaning state in an agreement both to support the national popular vote winner in 2020. Representatives of National Popular Vote opposed this bill on the ground that the Republican nominee might win the national popular vote and then Maryland Democrats wouldn't like having their electors bound to vote with the Republican electors in another state to this end. But hold on: everyone has to agree that the Republican nominee, meaning of course Donald Trump in all likelihood, might win the national popular vote. If that happens, he deserves to be president. Denying that on the bet that the Electoral College will help Democrats frustrate the will of the nation is quite contradictory to the entire thrust of the great one person, one vote cause. I hope the National Popular Vote advocates—who deserve all honor—will recant this unfortunate position and support Senator Ferguson's idea.


,

The Electoral College is a Security Risk

,

From NPR:

Swing states, and even individual precincts within those states, present a significant point of vulnerability when it comes to the threat of election interference because of their potential to impact the result in a presidential race, the current secretary of the Department of Homeland Security and one of her key predecessors both told senators Wednesday.

…

[L]ocal jurisdictions in places that can have an outsized effect on the outcome of national races — like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — will be forced to defend against cyber-threats posed by entire nation-state adversaries like Russia.

“The reality is: Given our Electoral College and our current politics, national elections are decided in this country in a few precincts, in a few key swing states," former DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson, who served under President Obama during the 2016 presidential election cycle, told members of the Senate intelligence committee. "The outcome, therefore, may dance on the head of a pin.”


, ,

Majority of Americans Support Getting Rid of Electoral College

, ,

The widespread discontent with the Electoral College has recently gone from a slow, constant simmer to a full-on boil.

Making Every Vote Count weighed in on Hardball with Chris Matthews tonight, as CEO Reed Hundt joined the show to discuss the system’s inequities.


, ,

Dispatch from the Land of the Ignored

, ,

As everyone probably knows, in seeking the 270 electoral votes, both parties' candidates in the general election take for granted more than 40 states, where more than 80% of Americans live.

Nevertheless, some people assert that this skewed game makes candidates pay attention to small states and the Midwest. That was demolished succinctly last night by a respected Republican strategist:

Screen Shot 2019-03-20 at 8.32.47 AM.png

In just the last day numerous presidential candidates have inveighed against the current system. They all grasp that no one in the country really wants the presidential election in 2020 to be determined by the two parties spending two or $3 billion on trying to persuade voters in just five or six states. 

Well, there is an exception. One presidential candidate tweeted that if every vote in the country mattered, and were counted equally to pick the president, then the candidates would ignore all small states and all states in the Midwest.

The idea that with a national popular vote system the parties would pay no attention to voters in the Midwest or Great Plains is about as logical as saying that Amazon doesn’t deliver products outside big cities or cell phones don’t connect to people everywhere in the country. Everyone in business knows how to reach everyone in the country, and in the business of politics with the national popular vote the candidates would do what businesses do: try to get every single customer. 

More than visiting, advertising, opening get-out-the-vote offices, going on radio, supporting small town newspapers, polling and calling people in small population states, the candidates would actually have to listen to people in every state. When every vote counts, every person gets attention.

Politicians who like the status quo might well dislike national campaigns by the presidential candidates. Republicans would have the incentive to rebuild their party in Vermont; Democrats would seek voters in the Dakotas. Two party contests would occur in most states, and some incumbents would lose their seats. Voters would have choices to make. Elections would not be foregone conclusions and mere coronations. The political parties would have to be big tents, where compromise was required to bond factions together. Small market newspapers and broadcast stations would be invigorated by advertising and news about candidate visits. Things would change. Democracy does that.

For those who think the country’s politics are heading in the wrong direction—and rural areas have high percentages of people who feel this way—the best possible antidote for the troubles of today is the election of the president by the people.

When I was the chairman of the FCC one of the reasons we wanted the Internet to touch everyone was precisely because we thought that if the political parties could reach everyone cheaply and efficiently through digital technology they would do so. The only reason that doesn’t happen now is the electoral college system makes 40 states and 80% of the people functionally irrelevant (taken for granted as) to the outcome of the presidential election.  


,

Beto O'Rourke Criticizes Electoral College

,

Beto O’Rourke has joined other 2020 candidates Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Kirsten Gillibrand in noting the unfairness of the Electoral College as the system currently operates.

When asked about it on the campaign trail, O’Rourke said that the Electoral College "puts some states out of play all together. They don't feel like their votes really count." O’Rourke added that “if we really want every person to vote,” the system has to “make sure their votes count and go to the candidate of their choosing.”


Elizabeth Warren Calls for Constitutional Amendment to End Electoral College

At a town hall event in Jackson, Mississippi, Senator and 2020 presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren called for a constitutional amendment to end the electoral college “to make sure that every vote counts.”

Warren noted that “in presidential elections, presidents don’t come to places like Mississippi” because they aren’t battleground states.  “I think everybody ought to have to come and ask for your vote,” she stated.

Senator Warren is right that the Electoral College system, as it currently operates, means that candidates are free to ignore voters in Mississippi and Massachusetts.  However, we can work within the system without a constitutional amendment to make every vote count.  One option is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.  With the recent additions of Colorado, New Mexico, and Delaware, the Compact has 189 of the 270 votes needed to go into effect and guarantee that the winner of the national popular vote becomes the president.


Colorado Governor Signs National Popular Vote

Colorado Governor Jared Polis has signed the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact into law, officially adding Colorado’s nine electoral votes to the effort to get 270 electoral votes pledged to the candidate that wins the national popular vote.

Assuming the governors of New Mexico and Delaware follow suit and sign the bills that have recently passed in those states, as they both have stated they will, the Compact will have 189 electoral votes.


,

White Supremacy’s Anvil: The Electoral College

,

Take a look at this illuminating history of the Electoral College from Making Every Vote Count Co-Founder and CEO Reed Hundt on Medium. It discusses how the Electoral College was conceived to protect the institution of slavery, and how the Electoral College worked to create and preserve Jim Crow long after slavery was officially abolished.


Delaware Votes to Join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

The Delaware legislature has voted to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. The Compact now goes to Governor John Carney (D), who has pledged to sign it.

Once states with 270 votes join the Compact, all member states have pledged to award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote.  This will ensure that no one can become president without winning the most votes. It also means that candidates will no longer be able to campaign only in swing states while ignoring the majority of Americans.  Every vote will matter equally, and the president will have to govern in the interest of all Americans instead of special interests in a tiny fraction of states. 

Thirteen other states, most recently New Mexico and Colorado, and the District of Columbia have already passed the Compact, totaling 186 votes. Delaware has three electoral votes, bringing the total to 189, or 70% of the votes needed.


,

No Matter Where you Live, Your Vote Should Count

,

Here is Representative Seth Moulton on the national popular vote:

People often defend the electoral college by arguing that without it, presidential candidates would pay attention to only a few states. But that’s already the case because of the electoral college: Two-thirds of general-election presidential campaign events in 2016 were held in just six states, and 94 percent were held in just 12 states. In a winner-take-all-electoral-votes system, candidates campaign only in the states that are a toss-up.

But if we abolish the electoral college — either through a constitutional amendment or a national popular-vote compact— presidential candidates could earn votes anywhere, making them far more likely to campaign everywhere. Then, no matter where you live or how your neighbors vote, your vote would matter. As it should.


,

Demography and Democracy

,

In “No Property in Man,” historian Sean Wilentz explains that the southern representatives to the constitutional convention were disappointed to see rather quickly that the “widely expected movement of population to favor the south and southwest never occurred, as settlement of migrants and new immigrants disproportionately favored the North.” Page 187.

In 1800, free states had 76 members of Congress, and slave states had 65. But by 1820 the margin was 122 to 90.

Southerners had hoped that the three-fifths compromise coupled with a swelling slave population would give them a slaveholding majority in the House. In that event, the Electoral College would always produce a pro-slavery president, even while slaves could not vote.

But demography is destiny. The burgeoning population of the North rapidly gave the House more free state representatives despite the three-fifths compromise.

Now again, as in first decades of the Republic, the demographic trends of the country are rapidly filling the House with members who root out and oppose racism in all its many manifestations, whether blatant or insidious.

These same trends have not yet changed the method of selecting the president. This is the reason that racially divisive candidacies for that high office are still possible.  


What Most People Want in a President

If the national popular vote elected the president, here are the positions candidates would confront in the electorate (Source):

The Economy

  • 82 percent of Americans think wealthy people have too much power and influence in Washington.

  • 69 percent think large businesses have too much power and influence in Washington.

  • 78 percent of likely voters support stronger rules and enforcement on the financial industry.

Inequality

  • 82 percent of Americans think economic inequality is a “very big” (48 percent) or “moderately big” (34 percent) problem.

  • 72 percent of Americans say it is “extremely” or “very” important, and 23 percent say it is “somewhat important,” to reduce poverty.

Money in Politics

  • 96 percent of Americans—including 96 percent of Republicans—believe money in politics is to blame for the dysfunction of the U.S. political system.

  • 84 percent of Americans—including 80 percent of Republicans—believe money has too much influence in politics.

  • 78 percent of Americans say we need sweeping new laws to reduce the influence of money in politics.

  • 73 percent of registered voters have an unfavorable opinion of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.

Taxes

  • 80 percent of Americans think some corporations don’t pay their fair share of taxes.

  • 78 percent think some wealthy people don’t pay their fair share of taxes.

  • 76 percent believe the wealthiest Americans should pay higher taxes.

  • 87 percent of Americans say it is critical to preserve Social Security, even if it means increasing Social Security taxes paid by wealthy Americans.

  • 67 percent of Americans support lifting the cap to require higher-income workers to pay Social Security taxes on all of their wages.

Minimum Wage

  • 66 percent of Americans favor raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour.

  • 63 percent of registered voters think the minimum wage should be adjusted each year by the rate of inflation.

Workers’ Rights

  • 74 percent of registered voters—including 71 percent of Republicans—support requiring employers to offer paid parental and medical leave.

  • 78 percent of likely voters favor establishing a national fund that offers all workers 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave.

Health Care

  • 64 percent of registered voters favor their state accepting the Obamacare plan for expanding Medicaid in their state.

Education

  • 63 percent of registered voters—including 47 percent of Republicans—of Americans favor making four-year public colleges and universities tuition-free.

 Climate Change and the Environment

  • 76 percent of voters are “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about climate change.

  • 68 percent of voters think it is possible to protect the environment and protect jobs.

  • 72 percent of voters think it is a “bad idea” to cut funding for scientific research on the environment and climate change.

 Gun Safety

  • 84 percent of Americans support requiring background checks for all gun buyers.

  • 77 percent of gun owners support requiring background checks for all gun buyers.

Immigration

  • 68 percent of Americans—including 48 percent of Republicans—believe the country’s openness to people from around the world “is essential to who we are as a nation.” Just 29 percent say that “if America is too open to people from all over the world, we risk losing our identity as a nation.”

  • 65 percent of Americans—including 42 percent of Republicans—say immigrants strengthen the country “because of their hard work and talents.” Just 26 percent say immigrants are a burden “because they take our jobs, housing and health care.”

  • 64 percent of Americans think an increasing number of people from different races, ethnic groups, and nationalities makes the country a better place to live. Only 5 percent say it makes the United States a worse place to live, and 29 percent say it makes no difference.

  • 76 percent of registered voters—including 69 percent of Republicans—support allowing undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children (Dreamers) to stay in the country. 58 percent think Dreamers should be allowed to stay and become citizens if they meet certain requirements. Another 18 percent think they should be allowed to stay and become legal residents, but not citizens. Only 15 percent think they should be removed or deported from the country.

Abortion and Women’s Health

  • 68 percent of Americans—including 54 percent of Republicans—support the requirement for private health insurance plans to cover the full cost of birth control.

Same-Sex Marriage

  • 62 percent of Americans—including 70 percent of independents and 40 percent of Republicans—support same-sex marriage.

  • 74 percent of millennials (born after 1981) support same-sex marriage.


New Mexico Votes to Join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

The New Mexico Senate has joined the state’s House in voting to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. The Compact now goes to Governor Michelle Grisham (D) for her approval.

Once states with 270 votes join the Compact, all member states have pledged to award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, ensuring that the winner of the national popular vote becomes president. This will mean that candidates will be forced to campaign for all votes everywhere, and not just in a few swing states. All votes will matter equally, no matter where a person lives.

Twelve other states, most recently Colorado, and the District of Columbia have already passed the Compact, totaling 181 votes. New Mexico has five electoral votes, bringing the total to 186.


,

The Biggest Threat to Democracy is up to the States to Fix

,

The Democratic House has passed a massive election reform bill, HR 1:

The sweeping bill is aimed at getting money out of politics and increasing transparency around donors, cracking down on lobbying, and expanding voting rights for Americans by implementing provisions like automatic voter registration.

This bill would go a long way to restoring the voting rights of U.S. citizens.  However, it will probably never even get a vote in the Senate.  And HR 1 does not even address the reason that most Americans’ votes don’t count in the presidential election: the Electoral College.  Unless you happen to live in a swing state, your vote is either taken for granted or ignored. 

But there is some good news.  States have the power to allocate their electoral votes in any way they chose.  If the states pass a law that pledges their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, candidates will campaign for every vote everywhere and every vote will count equally.


,

What most people want

,

This chart shows that no presidential candidate could win the national popular vote by opposing immigration.

immigration chart.jpg

If the national popular vote mattered to choosing the president, there’s no doubt that the boiling divisive controversy over immigration would simmer down to the point of debating the necessary compromises over (a) who can stay, (b) who can come in, and (c) how to expel or keep out those who cannot stay or come in.