Electoral College Reform Simulator

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2020 Presidential Election Simulator

Step 1: Select swing states

Notes:
- The options for swing states are: Florida, Maine (at large), Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska (2nd district), New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio.
These are the states that had a lower than 3% margin in 2016 or switched from red to blue/blue to red between 2008 and 2016.

- Only Maine-at-large (2 electoral votes) and Nebraska's 2nd district (1 electoral vote) are swing. So when you designate Maine as red, blue, or swing, that only applies to the 2 at-large electors--one (first district) will go to the Democrats and one (second district) will go to the Republicans. Similarly, when you designate Nebraska, that only applies to the 2nd district elector--the other 4 electors will go to the Republicans.

Step 2: Select states to pledge their electoral votes

Notes:
- These states will give their electors to the winner of the national popular vote and appear as green in the bar graph above. Maine and Nebraska are not options.

Step 3: Select odds

There are no swing states to set odds for! Continue to the next step.
Odds of Nevada going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Minnesota going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of New Hampshire going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Michigan going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Pennsylvania going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Wisconsin going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Florida going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Maine going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Nebraska going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Indiana going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Iowa going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of North Carolina going to Republicans vs. Democrats:
Odds of Ohio going to Republicans vs. Democrats:

Results

Republican odds of winning the election:
BEFORE Simulated Changes AFTER Your Changes: Only campaign to win Electoral College (not the national popular vote) AFTER Your Changes: Campaign to win both
Democrat odds of winning the election:
BEFORE Simulated Changes AFTER Your Changes: Only campaign to win Electoral College (not the national popular vote) AFTER Your Changes: Campaign to win both