If the Ballot is adopted in only 2 states (Minnesota and Pennsylvania), and if Michigan reverts to its pattern in 4 of the last 5 elections and becomes a blue state, the Republican Party will be forced to adopt national popular vote.

Data: 210 “safely blue” state EVs. (Voted Dem in the last 3 election and carried by Clinton by at least 5% margin. N=18; 15 of 18 voted Dem in last 5 elections)

Michigan: 16 EVs

Minnesota plus Pennsylvania: 30 EVs.

Total: 256 EVs

To assure at least a tie, the Democratic ticket would need to win only the following:

Maine (2 of 4) (voted Dem in 5 of last 5 elections)

Maine (1 of 4) (Dem in 4 of last 5 elections)

NH (4) (Dem in last 4 elections)

Nevada (6) (Dem in last 3 elections)

*Note: Maine’s fourth electoral vote is part of the 210 “safe” votes.

An alternative path to assure at least a tie would be for NH to join the Minnesota/Pennsylvania pairing and for Maine and Nevada to adopt the Ballot through initiative or legislatively, followed by winning a referendum election in 2022, or to adopt the Ballot as a constitutional amendment through legislative referral.

To win the Electoral College vote, the Republican Party would need to do the following;

--win at least one of the above 13 Electoral Votes, plus,

--run the table on all of the following

Wisconsin (10)(Dem 4 :5)

Iowa (6) (Dem 3:5)

Florida (29) (Dem 2:5)

Ohio (18) (Dem 2:5)

North Carolina (15) (Dem 1:5)

Arizona (11)

Georgia (16)

Texas (38)

The above strategy would be politically challenging, If the blue trend continues, it would be foolhardy.  If North Carolina turned blue in 2022 and adopted the Ballot, or if Ohio adopted the Ballot by citizen initiative, the Republican Party would have no path to winning with a battleground state strategy.

The alternative strategy is to support national popular vote measures to assure that the election is decided on that basis, and then to compete on a level playing field for the national popular vote. The strategy has two parts.

First, the Republican Party would embrace the Interstate Compact. The Compact would easily reach 270 Electoral Votes and come into force. However, it is expected that the Compact will be challenged in the courts, and there is a genuine risk that it might be invalidated. If that happens, the Republican Party would face an election with the  above-mentioned dire prospects.

In addition, the Republican Party has no guarantee that the Compact will be in force. For example, if the Republican ticket is doing well in national polls in June, blue states  have the option of withdrawing from the Compact and preventing it from being in force, with the same dire consequences.

As Plan B, as an effective back-up for the Interstate Compact, and for its own protection, the Republican party could endorse the Ballot and work to implement it broadly. The greatest effectiveness and protections would be provided by adoption of the Ballot in battleground states, in states with divided government, as a state constitutional amendment, and through citizen initiative.  With the Ballot in effect in several key states, the winner of the national vote will always win the election; thus, there is no reason for either party to withdraw from the Interstate Compact.